Demography, geopolitics and great power: A lesson from the past

Abstract

Demography is one of the factors determining and influencing the geopolitical balance of power in international relations. Politicians are the main actors in international relations, but powerful human dynamics are at work behind them. The study of geopolitics describes these dynamics, linked to human and physical geography. In the evolution of great power competition, economic, military and technological factors are taken into account, but the importance of demographic trends, which will play a key role in the struggle for world power, is often underestimated as a political and geopolitical factor. Demography works over long periods of time, i.e., over generations. The aim of this paper isto illustrate the importance of the above theory by looking at the demographic shock that France experienced in the 19th century and the geopolitical resulting consequences. As a result of this demographic shock, France lost its supremacy as the most populous country in Europe and was definitively overtaken by Germany. It is a scenario that can be useful for understanding the evolution of demographic competition in the 21st century, such as that of China versus India. In 2023, China will lose its supremacy as the world’s most populous country to India. This will be the first time that China has lost its primacy since the United Nations began tracking global demographic trends in 1950. China, like France in the past, is in danger of never catching up with its demographic disadvantage. History suggests that once a country crosses the threshold of negative population growth, regardless of the differences in national experiences, there is little that its government can do to reverse it.