Optimal decarbonisation pathways for the Italian energy system: Modelling a long-term energy transition to achieve zero emission by 2050

Abstract

The goal of achieving a zero-emission energy system by 2050 requires accurate energy planning to minimise the overall cost of the energy transition. Long-term energy models based on cost-optimal solutions are extremely dependent on the cost forecasts of different technologies. However, such forecasts are inherently uncertain. The aim of the present work is to identify a cost-optimal pathway for the Italian energy system decarbonisation and assess how renewable cost scenarios can affect the optimal solution. The analysis has been carried out with the H2RES model, a single-objective optimisation algorithm based on Linear Programming. Different cost scenarios for photovoltaics, on-shore and off-shore wind power, and lithium-ion batteries are simulated. Results indicate that a 100% renewable energy system in Italy is technically feasible. Power-to-X technologies are crucial for balancing purposes, enabling a share of non-dispatchable generation higher than 90%. Renewable cost scenarios affect the energy mix, however, both on-shore and off-shore wind saturate the maximum capacity potential in almost all scenarios. Cost forecasts for lithium-ion batteries have a significant impact on their optimal capacity and the role of hydrogen. Indeed, as battery costs rise, fuel cells emerge as the main solution for balancing services. This study emphasises the importance of conducting cost sensitivity analyses in long-term energy planning. Such analyses can help to determine how changes in cost forecasts may affect the optimal strategies for decarbonising national energy systems.