A Physiologically Based ODE Model for an Old Pest: Modeling Life Cycle and Population Dynamics of Bactrocera oleae (Rossi)

Abstract

The olive fruit fly Bactrocera oleae is one of the key insect pests infesting olive orchards in Mediterranean areas. Its coevolution with the olive tree, Olea europaea, made this pest highly specialized for this crop, being responsible for several yield reductions in terms of olive fruits and olive oil organoleptic properties. Monitoring is, to date, the main tool to assess the entity of infestations, but the increasing availability of biological information is making possible a quantitative interpretation of B. oleae’s biological traits in mathematical language. In this study, we aim to synthesize this plethora of information by applying a general physiologically based model theory of recent introduction. As a result, we obtained a parameterized model capable of describing B. oleae populations and with a high potential for implementation in Decision Support System programs. Besides the parameterization, model validation has been carried out in a three-year survey conducted in two representative productive areas of Sabina (Lazio, Central Italy). The model showed overall reliability in describing the field data trend, and it is a good starting point to be further improved.