EntoSim, a ROOT-based simulator to forecast insects’ life cycle: Description and application in the case of Lobesia botrana

Abstract

In the context of plant protection strategies against insect pests, the role of modelling is arousing interest among entomologists and environmental scientists. This work aims to provide an application of a computational tool, which includes a modified version of Von Foerster's equation to perform simulations for crop protection. More specifically, this software, named EntoSim, follows scientists and final users in each step of a simulation process. For this purpose, the program is divided into two blocks: the first contains a “laboratory phase”, in which scientists rear cohorts of insects at different constant temperatures to obtain life tables. The second block contains a simulation process and validation using field data. The developed tool was applied to the grapevine moth Lobesia botrana (Denis & Schiffermüller) alongside a 3-year validation process (2014, 2015, 2016 seasons), using data related to a monitoring activity in a vineyard located in the Castelli Romani area (Lazio, Italy). Results are a series of simulations of L. botrana life cycle, using daily average temperature as main driving variable for insect development. Comparison between simulations and field data showed a positive accordance, particularly in the 2016 season, confirming the reliability of both population dynamics model and computational tool.