A general ODE-based model to describe the physiological age structure of ectotherms: Description and application to Drosophila suzukii

Abstract

This paper introduces a novel general model based on Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) which is able to describe the population dynamics of a large class of insect pests. The proposed model is a physiologically-inspired generalization of a number of ad hoc models presented through the years in the literature. Its main feature is that it allows the systematic generation of a population model for a species by simply defining its key features, namely the sex ratio and the development, fertility, and mortality rates. The first part of the paper provides a detailed description of the model and shows that most ODE-based models existing in literature can be obtained as a special case of the proposed model. The second part of the paper shows an application of the model to the spotted wing drosophila Drosophila suzukii, which is a highly relevant pest in agriculture. The biological features of this species, i.e., the sex ratio and the various rates, were retrieved from the existing scientific literature. The obtained model was validated using data from a three-year survey conducted in two experimental fields. Results show that the model describes faithfully the experimental populations, although the simulations were performed completely in open-loop and without any adaptation of the parameters extracted from the existing literature.