The age dynamics of vineyards: past trends affecting the future

Carbone, Anna; Quici, Luisangela; Pica, Giovanni

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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2067/45412

Title:	The age dynamics of vineyards: past trends affecting the future
Authors:	Carbone, Anna Quici, Luisangela Pica, Giovanni
Journal:	WINE ECONOMICS AND POLICY
Issue Date:	2019
Abstract:	The paperintroducesamodified versionofthedemographicbalanceequationcommonlyusedinhumandemographyinthestudyof populations ofpermanentcrops.TheproposedmethodologyisthenappliedtoanalyzingtheevolutionoftheItalianvineyard. In short,thestudymeasuresdifferentfactorsthathavehadanimpactontheextensionoftheItalianvineyardandonitsagestructuresuchas the reducedinvestmentsinnewplantations;themassiveearlyexplantandalsotheextendedlifeofthevineyardssincetheyarekeptinproduction well beyondtheconventionallimitoftheireconomiclife.ResultsshowthatthereductionoftheareacultivatedwithgrapesinItalyisdueto different reasons,someofwhichrelatetothepastwhileothersmirrormorerecentbehaviorsofvinegrowers. The methodologyalsoallowsthepredictionoftendenciesinthefuture.Threescenariosarebuilt,basedondifferenthypothesisaboutnew investments andexplantationratesthataccountforthewineEUCMO2013–2030. Projectionsshow,thatinthenextdecades,boththeextension of cultivatedareaandplantagewillbedeeplyinfluenced bychoicesthathadbeenmadeevendecadesbefore.Comparingtheresultsobtained under thedifferenthypothesis,helpstoassesstherangeofpossibleimpactsofthenewpolicyframework. In anincreasinglyglobalandcompetitivemarket,theanalysisproposedprovidesoriginalinsightsonsomefuturewavesinthewineindustry both topolicymakersandstakeholders.Thisawarenessisespeciallyneededinordertoputinplacestrategiesaimedatavoidingsupply-demand mismatches inasectorwheresupplymovesslowlywhiledemandtrendsarefastandalmostunpredictable.
URI:	http://hdl.handle.net/2067/45412
ISSN:	2212-9774
DOI:	10.1016/j.wep.2019.02.004
Rights:	Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
Appears in Collections:	A1. Articolo in rivista

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