La risposta della produttività primaria al clima ed ai suoi cambiamenti: un'analisi modellistica per alcune tipologie forestali italiane
Author(s)
Mancini, Marco <AGR/05>
Date Issued
March 11, 2011
Type
Doctoral Thesis
Abstract
The future of forests is bound to be so essential as they will be able to respond to climate change in progress.
Not surprisingly, this is an issue that in recent years has received and is receiving much attention from the scientific world. Although forests have responded to climate change during their evolutionary history, a strong concern for forest ecosystems is given by the rapidity of change.
It will have a strong impact on land use, health and vitality of forests and the sustainable provision of goods and services for the population.
It remains unclear which will be the response of forests to climate changes, particularly the increase in atmospheric CO2 and temperature as well as changes of water regime. According to the IPCC scenarios, the ongoing climate warming will tend to move toward higher latitudes and altitude the typical Mediterranean environments.
In addition, we have to consider the rapid change of land use, habitat fragmentation, exploitation of natural resources and the lack of proper planning of human actions, as factors that further degrade these environments.
It is now widely accepted the importance of forest ecosystems in mitigating the effects of global change, through the establishment and the storage of large quantities of carbon.
In order to predict forest productivity in a large scale we must have a reliable model that requires few input parameters easily measurable.
The aim of this study was to predict for three species that characterize the Italian forest landscape: Fagus sylvatica, Quercus cerris and Quercus ilex, the magnitude and impact of climate change on net primary production (NPP), associated with current and future potential distribution of species, according to climatic scenarios.
It has been possible to estimate, through the use of semi-empirical model Mo.C.A, and spatialise throughout the Italian territory, using a GIS, the outputs of NPP.
The study considered both the current climate over the period 1961-1990 established by the WMO (World Metorological Organization), and the potential one of other two temporal ranges, such as that of 2031-2060 and 2071-2100, according to two climatic scenarios produced by Hadley Centre: the B1 and the A1Fi.
To get more accuracy in the estimates, the outputs have been validated by comparing them with data calculated in forest measuring stations located in areas with the same studied species, by the eddy covariance technique.
Furthermore this approach has been useful to deduce some aspects of efficiency in the use of water resources in relation to a latitudinal gradient from south to north and two different climate scenarios, through the use of WUE index.
Both these aspects will be necessary to define protocols and guidelines aimed to maintain the existing actual forest stands and to mitigate / minimize the climate change effects.
Additional information
Dottorato di ricerca in Ecologia forestale
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