Demolition of the European ships fleet: A scenario analysis
Author(s)
Date Issued
2024
Type
article
Volume
166
Journal
Abstract
This paper conducts a detailed exploration of projected trends in the demolition and recycling of the European ship fleet, in light of the dismantling capacity in Europe. Utilizing a robust predictive model based on the Weibull distribution, the study synthesizes historical data and current operational metrics to forecast trends up to the year 2050, such as ship typologies, their average age, and recycling frequency. By estimating the rate and volume of ships reaching their end-of-life (EOL), the study aims to delineate the required capacity for ship recycling in Europe over the coming decades. The analysis reveals the key factors influencing the demolition trajectory and provide essential insights for future planning and policy formulation in the field of ship recycling. The study also underscore the importance of developing adaptive strategies in ship dismantling catering to the anticipated shifts in fleet composition and evolving environmental regulations, offering a foundation for informed decision-making and policy development in the maritime industry.
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