The age dynamics of vineyards: past trends affecting the future
Author(s)
Date Issued
2019
Type
article
Volume
8
Issue
1
Start Page
38
End Page
48
ISSN
2212-9774
Journal
Abstract
The paperintroducesamodified versionofthedemographicbalanceequationcommonlyusedinhumandemographyinthestudyof
populations ofpermanentcrops.TheproposedmethodologyisthenappliedtoanalyzingtheevolutionoftheItalianvineyard.
In short,thestudymeasuresdifferentfactorsthathavehadanimpactontheextensionoftheItalianvineyardandonitsagestructuresuchas
the reducedinvestmentsinnewplantations;themassiveearlyexplantandalsotheextendedlifeofthevineyardssincetheyarekeptinproduction
well beyondtheconventionallimitoftheireconomiclife.ResultsshowthatthereductionoftheareacultivatedwithgrapesinItalyisdueto
different reasons,someofwhichrelatetothepastwhileothersmirrormorerecentbehaviorsofvinegrowers.
The methodologyalsoallowsthepredictionoftendenciesinthefuture.Threescenariosarebuilt,basedondifferenthypothesisaboutnew
investments andexplantationratesthataccountforthewineEUCMO2013–2030. Projectionsshow,thatinthenextdecades,boththeextension
of cultivatedareaandplantagewillbedeeplyinfluenced bychoicesthathadbeenmadeevendecadesbefore.Comparingtheresultsobtained
under thedifferenthypothesis,helpstoassesstherangeofpossibleimpactsofthenewpolicyframework.
In anincreasinglyglobalandcompetitivemarket,theanalysisproposedprovidesoriginalinsightsonsomefuturewavesinthewineindustry
both topolicymakersandstakeholders.Thisawarenessisespeciallyneededinordertoputinplacestrategiesaimedatavoidingsupply-demand
mismatches inasectorwheresupplymovesslowlywhiledemandtrendsarefastandalmostunpredictable.
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