Distributed Delay Models: a proposal of application in urban context to forecast pest insects’ life cycle
Author(s)
Date Issued
2018
Type
conferenceObject
Start Page
169
End Page
178
Abstract
Talking about Integrated Pest Management it is common to think about an agronomic context. In this case the technology has gone ahead, providing a large series of instruments of different type. Precision farming, for example, will allow to build always more accurate machines to inspect plants and remove pest insects. To help agronomists and technicians, furthermore, is going ahead the idea to develop always more raffinate mathematical models to describe insects and plants lifecycle, in relation to environmental parameters such as the daily average temperature. A good model for this purpose is the Distributed Delay Model, enriched in the course of time with much more mathematical aspects.The aim of this work is to present a new modeling approach developed on two different sides: the first one is by the mathematical side, with a new develop of Von Foerster’s equation, and the second is the implementation of the equations in a software built with the ROOT libraries and C++ programming language. A new mathematical form for the Von Foerster equation allows to insert directly in the model all the parameters related to environment and the specie. Through the use of the upwind method, this partial differential equation can be solved with an implementation in a dedicated software. The DS Simulator is the final product, a software composed of a list of macros able to accompany the environmental scientists since the first step of parameters estimation in laboratory. In the specific, in the metropolitan area of Rome, our purpose is an application in the case of Rhynchophorus ferrugineus and Lobesia botrana.
Conference(s)
10th International Conference on Innovation in Urban and Regional Planning (INPUT)