Interazione tra il cinghiale (Sus scrofa) e le attività antropiche con particolare riferimento al sistema agro-silvo-pastorale
Author(s)
Serrani, Fioravante
Date Issued
May 10, 2012
Type
Doctoral Thesis
Abstract
One of the most relevant problems arising from the presence and spread of ungulates in Europe and
in Italy is the damage to agricultural crops and grasslands which amount to several million €uro
every year. In this contest the aim of the study is to analyze the main factors affecting crop damage
in a Mediterranean area of central Italy characterised by a patchy agriculture, particular attention is
given to agricultural and hunting management criteria and legal status of the species. With
automated GIS analysis we derive a large number of terrain parameters on a landscape and local
scale, including topography, land use, and agricultural management. Also, variables such as number
of wild boar shot down, hunting management and legal status of wild boar were calculated. The
data of each hexagon were submitted to a generalized binomial stepwise multiple logistic regression
able to identify the variables significantly affecting the probability of occurrence of crop damage.
The relative contribution of variables to the resulting model was assessed using the Wald test. The
model showed an accuracy of 0.76, a misclassification rate of 0.24 and an Odds-ratio of 10.41. The
most important variables predicting crop damage were proximity to woods where hunting is banned
(P<0.001), the so called “refuge effect” (P<0.001), the presence of rivers (P<0.05), and the forest
edge (P<0.001). The mean number of wild boar shot has a significant incidence (P<0.05).
Additional information
Dottorato di ricerca in Scienze e tecnologie per la gestione forestale e ambientale
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