Unequal Burdens: Food Price Convergence, Divergence, and Inequality in the European Union

In recent years, the European Union (EU) has experienced an unprecedented surge in food prices, driven by overlapping global shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain disruptions, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This paper examines how these shocks have translated into unequal burdens across EU member states, with a particular focus on their distributional consequences. Using monthly Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data disaggregated by food category (ECOICOP 4-digit level) from 2005 to 2025, we apply β- and σ-convergence frameworks to assess whether food price dynamics have aligned or diverged across countries. Over the two decades, EU food prices display significant β- and σ-convergence up to 2019, but this process reverses sharply during 2020-2025: cross-country dispersion widens to historically high levels and β turns from negative (catch-up) to positive (divergence). The reversal is most pronounced between euro-area and non-euro-area countries and between Eastern and Western Europe, and it disproportionately affects lower-income households and countries with smaller economic bases, amplifying pre-existing inequalities in purchasing power and food security. These findings underscore the regressive nature of food price inflation and the need for targeted fiscal and monetary policies to mitigate its unequal impact and support economic cohesion within the EU.