Sicurezza alimentare e cambiamento climatico: metodologia di analisi della vulnerabilità dei sistemi agroalimentari locali in Nicaragua
Author(s)
Cocchi, Alessandro
Date Issued
March 28, 2011
Type
Doctoral Thesis
Abstract
The thesis deals with a research and an on-field testing of an impact interpretation model of climate change on food security in Nicaragua. The specific purpose is the development and testing of a vulnerability/stability analysis method of the effects of the climate change on two sample food systems in Nicaragua. The method is also aimed at the identification of prevention and mitigation policies.
The achievement of this objective is based on a wide bibliographical research and a two months field survey in Nicaragua (March and April 2010). During the field survey a large number of interviews and focus groups with both private and institutional stakeholders was carried out.
The more an impact analysis of climate change on environment and economic activities is focused on a restricted area, the less it results easy and reliable. Social dynamics and human action on environment at local level can be more crucial in creating adverse or favourable living conditions to people than climate variability.
The complex relationship between climate and human activities is even more apparent when attempting to relate climate changes and food security of a specific community. Food security concept gets together different meanings, such as food production and conservation, income based food accessibility and biological use of food (diet patterns and hygienic conditions of food consumption).
Therefore, dealing with economic relations between complex systems, as climate and food security, involves the use of articulated interpretation models as well as quantitative and qualitative analytical tools, being the latter prevalent in a condition of scarce or unreliable data and time series.
The starting point of the thesis is a critical analysis of the current interpretation model of the impact of climate change on ecological and social systems on which the present food security and climate change impact mitigation policies of the Government of Nicaragua are based.
In this framework the Aggregated Food and Nutritional Insecurity Index - elaborated by the World Food Programme and presently adopted in Nicaragua in the identification of the areas mostly exposed to food insecurity – is also analysed and discussed. As a consequence of this analysis a more complete model is proposed, named Dynamic Aggregated Food and Nutritional Insecurity Index. This index uses dynamic variables (rates of variation) referring to socio-economic factors which determine food security. At the same time this index captures the most production-related environmental factors at local level. Unfortunately a sample application of this index is impeded by the lack of the necessary time series. Nevertheless its formulation offers a useful operational direction to data collection planning and organization.
As a consequence of the critical methodological issues emerged in the previous analysis, a review of alternative interpretation models is proposed and discussed. The “DPSIR” (Drivers, Pressures, State & Trends, Impacts and Responses) model is then identified as the most suitable for the achievement of the thesis objective.
The DPSIR model is aimed at interpreting environmental and human contexts as well as at focusing policies makers on prevention and mitigation measures. Once specifically adjusted to food and nutritional security issues, the DPSIR model resulted particularly useful to identifying the existing knowledge deficiencies, about impacts and responses in particular.
The “impact analysis” is complemented with a multi-criteria matrix of impacts of climate change on food systems of two different agricultural regions of Nicaragua (stability analysis). This matrix relates the food systems components (food production, distribution and consumption) to the corresponding pillars of the food security concept (availability, accessibility and biological use). The matrix converts quantitative and qualitative assessments into a scoring system allowing for identifying the most relevant problems and comparing stability / vulnerability levels of different food systems.
The agricultural region where adjustment and mitigation processes are more visible is not the one counting with a more consistent natural capital (New Agricultural Frontier and Caribbean Cost) but the one relying on old and stable human settlements and more consistent social capital (Agro-industrial lowlands of the Pacific Cost). The first agricultural region, even if provided with a consistent natural capital and a high production potential, is characterised by the highly destructive production patterns of a pioneer population which has not yet developed either aggregative community models or collective resiliency experiences.
The “response analysis” is focused on 6 different prevention/mitigation models presently adopted by the national authorities (both central and local) with the support of the international donors community. This analysis stresses that none of the models gets together all the necessary characteristics of efficiency and effectiveness for trigging resiliency and development processes. None of the models can be considered as a “good practice” per se, mainly if not included in a locally focused, coordinated and coherent framework of measures. Furthermore, the duration of the institutional actions applying these models is generally too reduced for ensuring their success and sustainability and fulfilling the expectations of the beneficiaries.
From the “response analysis” clearly emerged the need to adopt the following general criteria in the effort to support food security and mitigate the effects of climate change:
- Wholeness of the approach: the insertion of any food security action (programme, project, initiative) in the framework of land development process, including actions against poverty and environmental protection,
- Institutional coherence: both food security and climate change impact mitigation actions should be always coordinated with the competent institutions, in order to harmonise working methods,
- Spatial coherence: the identification of priority action areas should consider food security problems and environmental vulnerability simultaneously.
The environmental unsustainability of the present agricultural practices (deforestation, advance of the agricultural frontier by slashing and burning the natural cover, nomadic agricultural patterns, etc.) and the weakness of the social capital perpetuate chronic food insecurity conditions. Even though not supported by quantitative evaluations, it seems apparent that micro-agro-climatic changes due to the mismanagement of local environmental resources affect food security much more than the effects of global climatic change.
Present food security policies and climate change impact mitigation strategies do not consider the analysis above and their harmonisation is insufficient and not operational. In order to highlight this discrepancy a comparative policy matrix is presented ad discussed. This matrix shows a comparative analysis between the political deficiencies and priorities emerged thanks to the DPSIR approach and a number of action proposals referred to the two sample agricultural regions.
The international donors community (UE first) supporting both food security and environmental policies of the Government of Nicaragua has the responsibility to cooperate in order to remove the structural constraints impeding an equitable access to fertile farming land and food.
In the framework of the international aid, more investments in research should be considered in order to improve the knowledge of all factors relating climatic variability to food security and economic development.
The involvement of civil society in the management of social solidarity networks (i.g.: food crisis early alarm networks) and the collection of basic socio-economic and climatic data at local level ore of crucial importance.
Only a joint effort of the local communities, the national institutions and the international donors’ community, supported by adequate knowledge and more effective analytical tools, will revert the process that determines the adverse environmental and socio-economic conditions which currently expose a large number of Nicaraguan people to food insecurity.
Additional information
Dottorato di ricerca in Economia e territorio
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